The housing market data shows a surprising shift. Inventory of unsold homes has flattened, holding steady at around 860,000 single-family homes for four straight weeks. Last year at this time, supply was climbing quickly, but now new listings are down nearly 5% year-over-year, and withdrawals are keeping overall inventory capped.
Meanwhile, pending home sales ticked up slightly to 67,000 contracts but remain roughly on par with 2024 levels. Demand is steady but not expanding. On pricing, the trend is turning softer—by at least one measure, national home prices are on the verge of dipping below last year’s levels. At the same time, price reductions have plateaued around 42%, the highest August rate in over a decade.
Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen breaks down:
- Why 2025 may have already hit peak inventory
- What slowing new listings and rising withdrawals mean for sellers
- Pending home sales trends as mortgage rates hover near 10-month lows
- How price per square foot suggests national home prices could turn negative soon
- Why price cuts remain elevated and what that signals about buyer demand
As mortgage rates ease toward 6.6% and optimism grows about potential Fed action, the housing market remains finely balanced. Sellers face less competition than earlier in the year—but pricing strategically remains key in a high-inventory, rate-sensitive market.
